Oscars Preview 2025! Scene-Stealers Talk the 96th Annual Academy Awards

“If Will Smith wins, he’s going to have the speech that people talk about for years.”  

-Joe Jarosz, February 10, 2022

We’ve done this before, people! The bullpen of writers here at Scene-Stealers KNOWS the Oscars, and is once again offering up all the hot takes a person can handle just days ahead of the Academy’s ceremony. And it is one to remember, that’s for sure, as the slate of nominees seems to mirror the increasingly grimdark pall that has descended on not just the industry and the country, but the world as a whole. Abused architects, strippers, and witches are squaring off against a cocky musician, a trans mobster, a genocidal prophet, and a deformed she-beast. Gone are the days of cozy, fish-fucking love stories and Barbie glam-pop: it’s 2025, things suck, and the movies aren’t going to let anyone forget that.

Like last year, the year before, and the year before that, Scene-Stealers collected the prognostications of its contributors to assess what 2025’s ceremony promises and portends. This race is a tough one to handicap, though, and while some feel confident in their predictions, others just want to watch the world (and Emilia Perez) burn…

WHAT WILL BE THE BIG NARRATIVE OF THIS YEAR’S OSCARS?

Warren Cantrell: The world sucks right now, and the movies in the awards conversation reflect that (and then some). Seriously, I can’t remember a darker slate of nominees, but I also can’t imagine a better host for the ceremony than Conan O’Brien in light of all that. No one does desperate, cry-inside/laugh-on-the-outside desperation humor better than Conan, and I expect him to make a meal of this theme throughout the night.

Sophie Williams: “Trump is President will the movie about a Mexican Trans Woman win Best Picture?” vs. “Emilia Perez is the worst Best Picture nominee ever and we shall all rejoice in its destruction”

Eric Melin: The LA fires – with a sidecar of trans rights and Trump. That would have been a bigger focus had the problematic Karla Sofía Gascón tweets not surfaced and ruined that film’s Oscar campaign. Gascón was previously announced to not be there, but as of yesterday, is back on to attend. Although this torched Emilia Perez‘s Best Picture chances, I still believe Zoe Saldana will emerge untouched and win Supporting Actress.

Logan Van Winkle: The big narrative will be “Who’s Winning Best Picture?” While I absolutely adored Oppenheimer last year, it’s refreshing to have a year that has remained ever-changing. At one point, Wicked, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Perez, and Anora could have been considered the frontrunner. While things look to have cleared up a bit more, I would not say that everything is set in stone.

WHAT IS THE BIGGEST SURPRISE OR SNUB IN YOUR OPINION?

Eric Melin: I was disappointed in the lack of nominations for A Different Man (makeup only), Challengers, and Furiosa. I also think Kinds of Kindness and His Three Daughters were overlooked and snubbed all season long. Kneecap should have been nominated in the International Film category.

Logan Van Winkle: Biggest snub is Challengers across multiple categories. It was by far my favorite film of 2024 and the most fun I had in a movie the entire year. It’s surprisingly rare that the same distinction can be given to the same movie. If it had been up to me, Challengers would have been nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor (O’Connor), Best Actress (Zendaya), Best Original Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Editing, and Best Score. You know where it was nominated though? Nowhere. For shame.

Sophie Williams: The lack of love for A Real Pain is shocking. Kieran Culkin by all means is likely going to saunter gently into an Oscar win (correctly), but only having two nods and neither of them being for Picture or Cinematography is a fucking crime. Also, a lot of my loved ones are hitting on the lack of non-technical love for Nosferatu as evidence of the Oscar’s hatred for horror, but I genuinely believe if Focus made a play for Oscars (which it very much did not) it could have pulled at least one acting nod and maybe adapted screenplay or even Picture (though never with a win). I also cannot help but feel like my excitement over all the love that The Substance is getting is hampered by the fact it seems to be getting attention for the wrong reasons.

Warren Cantrell: This one is easy, really, and is made worse by the fact that this season’s lineup for Best Director is hard to argue against, with just one glaring exception. Netflix and their swag budget bought Jacques Audiard a nomination, which in other years might not have mattered as much if it didn’t come at the expense of Denis Villeneuve, who should be the front-runner. A critically loved box office success that also manages to land the plane on a sequel’s worth of technical and narrative promises is no small feat, and everyone agrees that Villeneuve is responsible for the lion’s share of Dune 2’s success. Bleh…Brady Corbet and his way-too-long movie will probably win and maybe then he’ll be able to make rent or whatever.

Joe Jarosz: Wicked is going to walk away nearly empty-handed…this year. Next year, when Part 2 rolls around, the film will clean up like The Return of the King did back in 2003.

WHAT ARE YOUR BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS? WHO IS THE FAVORITE, AND WHAT’S A LONGSHOT DARKHORSE YOU LIKE?

Logan Van Winkle: It’s looking like Anora’s to lose from a stats perspective, but I have a gut feeling that it will end up being Conclave. I have felt this way since I saw the movie and ultimately, I am sticking with that prediction.

Warren Cantrell: Honestly, it’s hard to care for me, which is rare when it comes to Best Picture. It was my favorite film of 2024, so I’d LOVE it if Anora won, but despite the recent momentum I don’t think it has a prayer. I would have been stoked to see Sing Sing or The Substance win, but Sing Sing isn’t even nominated, The Substance doesn’t stand a chance, and the rest of them left me lukewarm at best, and cold at worst.

Joe Jarosz: You’ll see a thread in the rest of my answers, but the darkhorse is The Substance. There were so many great horror movies in 2024 that it would be amazing if one of them took home the biggest Academy Award. Unfortunately, Conclave or Anora is probably going to win it.

Eric Melin: Wow, this one is really up for grabs this year! Emilia Perez was the clear frontrunner, but since its nosedive, A Complete Unknown had emerged as a possible consensus pick. But then Anora won the PGA, DGA, and Critic’s Choice, and Conclave won the SAG. There’s still some stink on The Brutalist unfortunately (for its AI-enhanced leading performers’ accent help) which, along with Nickel Boys would be my fave among those nominated—so despite its early Golden Globes win, that may be a tough sell. Despite its heavy sexual content, Anora may very well be the darkhorse to swoop in and win it all…

Sophie Williams: This year’s race is all contingent on Oscar voters’ interest in politics this year. Because of that, despite Brutalist being given the kiss of the heavens (at time of writing, however my baby Anora keeps winning Guild Awards so I have hopes), another contender very much feels like the real pick with all of the momentum. I will say, though, Dune 2 and Conclave are both far more impressive and interesting than their showings here merit and in other years I’d argue both should be considered more serious contenders.

WHAT’S YOUR FAVORITE CATEGORY OF NOMINEES?

Sophie Williams: All timer is happening over in visual effects this year. Weta’s work is, was, and forever will be the gold standard, and the Apes series continues to be the default “best of all time” in a lot of ways, Better Man is terrible but the balls of having the lead, Robbie Williams, playing himself as a CGI chimpanzee almost makes up for the wild, flawed concept. Dune Part 2 and Alien: Romulus make CGI and practical functionally invisible and while the CGI is obvious at times in Wicked, I don’t care as it adds to the magical, theater nerd aura and extends those beautifully artificial sets into the stratosphere. God, a lot of chimps this year. Otherwise, I’d want to say Best Leading Actress, like so many other years. Not a truly bad candidate from the bunch even if Karla Sofía Gascón is a racist Islamophobic weirdo and that movie generally is bad. Torres is the probable most impressive showing here though, even if my heart forever belongs to Ani from Queens and Mikey Madison generally.

Joe Jarosz: Best Animated Films. I genuinely believe two of those five (Flow and The Wild Robot) could have been Best Picture nominees. Animated movies have been killing it in recent years and they need to be acknowledged outside of their category.

Warren Cantrell: I’m with Joe on this one, which is a big reversal for me, because I usually don’t have all that much interest in the Best Animated Feature category. Flow was one of my favorite films of 2024, and while I’ll be disappointed if The Wild Robot beats it for the statue, I won’t be outraged. I’m also an O.G. Wallace and Gromit fan, so seeing this in the conversation also warms my heart to no end. Seriously, though: if you haven’t watched Flow yet, do it ASAP. It is a startlingly beautiful story about trust, community, and fellowship and holy shit do we need more of that in the world right now.

Eric Melin: I hope they show the craziest possible clip of The Substance when it wins for the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category!

IF YOU WERE AN OSCAR LOBBYIST, WHO WOULD YOU BE CAMPAIGNING HARD FOR, AND WHY?

Eric Melin: The Seed of the Sacred Fig was the most powerful movie I saw all year. Its director and many of its stars had to flee Iran after shooting it illegally in secret, and it’s not just a powerful condemnation of authoritarian rule, but a remarkable family drama that could really bring the current threat that Trump poses here at home to light, with emotional stakes. I have no idea why its Oscar chances are so low, and what happened to its campaign. I’m convinced that had more people actually seen it, it would be a frontrunner.

Sophie Williams: My campaign would have started in June and would have been VERY aggressive and wouldn’t have worked at all since my go-to for 2024 didn’t get a single nod. In light of THAT omission I’d probably just push Mikey Madison and Yura Borisov at every corner. I have been singing the praises of Baker since Tangerine, I maintain Florida Project is the best film of the year it came out and was robbed at the Oscars, and Anora is fantastic and needs all the love it can get.

Joe Jarosz: Demi Moore’s Best Actress win should not be the only recognition for The Substance. The film either needs to walk away with Best Director or Best Original Screenplay, too.

Warren Cantrell: Besides Flow for Animated Feature (see above for more on that)? I’d push all my chips in behind Colman Domingo for Best Actor in Sing Sing, a criminally underseen film from last year that should be getting more attention than it has.

LET’S SAY YOU ONLY GET ONE: WHAT’S YOUR HOT-TAKE PREDICTION?

Joe Jarosz: Paul Rudd is somehow going to trick Conan O’Brien into playing a clip of Mac and Me.

Eric Melin: Ralph Fiennes wins Best Actor cuz he was amazing and is well-respected and oft overlooked!

Warren Cantrell: I expect The Brutalist will have a big night, not because it deserves it (that’s rarely the case), but because it has been pre-ordained by Academy voters who feel like it should win. That said, I’d bet a month’s mortgage that half of those voting didn’t finish it (if they started it at all). That’s not much of a hot take in terms of predictions, though, so for that I’ll go with Flow winning Best Animated Feature. Wild Robot is probably gonna snag it, but I dare to dream.

Sophie Williams: Emilia Perez winning Best Picture would be worse for the 2020s than Crash winning was for the 2000s. Emilia Perez losing Best Picture would be worse for the 2020s than Brokeback Mountain losing was for the 2000s. Look out for more on that soon. Oh, also uhh Guadagnino got screwed again and both Challengers and Queer should have had a couple nominations. There. More acceptable hot take. I’m gonna go back to hoarding estrogen and eggs and learning self-defense in my gay communist bunker. —- Emilia Perez review soon!

Logan Van Winkle: This is a really bold prediction considering the momentum that he and the film itself have but I am going to say that despite having the chance to make Oscars history by winning four awards in one night, Sean Baker will go home empty-handed. Here’s how I see it: Conclave wins Best Picture and Best Editing, Brady Corbet wins Best Director, and A Real Pain wins Best Original Screenplay. The last one is probably the least likely to pan out how I suspect, but again, I just have a gut feeling. I will probably wake up on Monday morning and realize that gut feeling was just stomach pain.

Best Picture

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part 2

Emilia Perez

I’m Still Here

Nickel Boys

Wicked

Best Actor

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Best Actress

Demi Moore, The Substance

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Perez

Mikey Madison, Anora

Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Best Supporting Actor

Yura Borisov, Anora

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Best Supporting Actress

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Felicity Jones, The Brutalist

Ariana Grande, Wicked

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Best Director

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Sean Baker, Anora

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Best Adapted Screenplay

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

Best Original Screenplay

Anora

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

September 5

The Substance

Best Documentary Feature

Black Box Diaries

No Other Land

Porcelain War

Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

Sugarcane

Best Animated Feature

Flow

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

The Wild Robot

Best International Film

I’m Still Here (Brazil)

The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)

Emilia Pérez (France)

The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)

Flow (Latvia)

Best Cinematography

The Brutalist

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Maria

Nosferatu

Best Film Editing

Anora

The Brutalist

Conclave

Emilia Pérez

Wicked

Best Music (Original Score)

The Brutalist

Emilia Pérez

Conclave

Wicked

The Wild Robot

Best Music (Original Song)

“El Mal” from Emilia Pérez

“The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight

“Like a Bird” from Sing Sing

“Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez

“Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late

Best Production Design

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Wicked

Best Costume Design

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Gladiator II

Nosferatu

Wicked

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

A Different Man

Emilia Pérez

Nosferatu

The Substance

Wicked

Best Sound

A Complete Unknown

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Pérez

Wicked

The Wild Robot

Best Visual Effects

Alien: Romulus

Better Man

Dune: Part Two

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Wicked

Best Live Action Short Film

A Lien

Anuja

I’m Not a Robot

The Last Ranger

The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

Best Animated Short Film

Beautiful Men

In the Shadow of the Cypress

Magic Candies

Wander to Wonder

Yuck!

Best Documentary Short Subject

Death by Numbers

I Am Ready, Warden

Incident

Instruments of a Beating Heart

The Only Girl in the Orchestra