Here we go! It’s been a long road to this year’s awards season, with no shortage of shifting narratives along the way, but Sunday is the day of days. Precursor awards like the Golden Globes and BAFTAs have only further muddied the waters of the prognosticators, and the idiots who care about this stuff (see below) find themselves in the final stretch of Oscar season with more questions than answers for their ballots.
Once again, those nominated for the 95th annual Academy Awards represent an interesting mix of critical darlings, big-budget crowd pleasers, and everything in between, with Everything Everywhere All at Once leading the field with 11 nominations. Few people are predicting the kind of sweep that have characterized some of the ceremonies of old, however, with this year’s marquee categories representing some of the most competitive races in decades. A full list of the nominations is at the bottom, but to get a sense of what the Scene-Stealers crew is thinking about this crop of nominees, look no further.
WHAT IS THE BIGGEST SURPRISE OR SNUB IN YOUR OPINION?
Timothy English: I was really surprised to not see a nomination either for Viola Davis for The Woman King nor, especially, Danielle Deadwyler for Till. Viola was a beast in Woman King. If she was The Rock they would have let her do the coin flip at the Super Bowl, but she’s one of the best actresses in the game and she killed it in this flick. And Deadwyler delivered what I thought was one of the most powerful performances of the year. SNUBBBBBBED. And not enough love for RRR across the board, easily the most surprisingly entertaining movie of the year. It had bromance, war, subtitles, song fighting, leopard tossing. I’m going to watch it again when I’m done writing this, actually.
Warren Cantrell: In a year where Colin Farrell is having a McConaughey-like “aissance” it seems insane to me that a very good film he was in this awards season didn’t get a single nomination. Thirteen Lives found itself relegated to Amazon Prime territory: where statue dreams and potential audience awareness go to die. This is a shame, too, because the film is a well-made, riveting thriller by an A-List director (Ron Howard) who may have lost his fastball, but still has plenty of pitches to get you out. You’d think Farrell’s big year and Ron Howard’s status as an Academy vote-magnet would have been enough to put this in the discussion even if it had been mediocre, which it isn’t! Seriously: go watch Thirteen Lives!
Eric Melin: I was really rooting for Dolly De Leon to get a Supporting Actress nom for her brutally deadpan, hilarious work in Triangle of Sadness. It’s a movie divided in three parts, really—and she just walks away with it in the final third. I heard she’ll at least be on hand to introduce the film’s Best Pic nom, so that’s cool, but if she were nominated, she may actually have been able to pull off the upset win when the Everything Everywhere All at Once (EEAO) actresses undoubtedly split the vote. Instead, Angela Bassett will get a win here for her career.
Jonah Desneux: TWO blockbuster action sequels are nominated for Best Picture and a Marvel film is taking home an acting award, but no Nope anywhere at any time? An interesting (bad) choice to say the least. Same with how Decision to Leave went from Best Picture talks to being completely shut out. The lack of recognition in International Feature is still head-scratching. But you know what they say: The Devil works hard, but EO’s marketing team works harder.
Joe Jarosz: All Quiet on the Western Front has to be one of the quietest nominations in recent history. Not only was I surprised this was released in October (what? I only heard about it when the nominations came out), but that it was nominated for best picture? Outside of best picture, Guillermo del Toro should have received a Best Director nomination for his Pinocchio.
WHAT ARE YOUR BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS? WHO IS THE FAVORITE, AND WHAT’S A LONGSHOT DARKHORSE YOU LIKE?
Eric Melin: With all its previous guild wins, EEAO is the odds-on fave. And I adore that movie and hope it wins. But it’s weird having it go in as the favorite. Let that sink in—the movie where the guy jams a trophy up his butt and high-jumps an office divider to travel the multiverse is the favorite. Upsets I’d be happy about: Banshees, Tár, Triangle of Sadness—all seem like fairy tales. The only two I’d be pissed about would be the underwhelming and completely repetitive All Quiet Redux and Avatar Deux.
Warren Cantrell: Best Picture seems like one of the only safe categories in terms of predictions, with EEAO cleaning up at pretty much every awards precursor. That’s what is going to be on my Oscar party ballot, but I never count the Academy voters out when it comes to making ridiculous choices in spite of all reason. If someone gave me 5:1 odds or better on Top Gun: Maverick winning, I’d probably take that bet.
Timothy English: Favorite: EEAO. The Banshees of Inisherin might have a shot if everyone gives EEAO the Ben Affleck treatment and votes for literally anything else because they just assume it has the votes. Longshot: Man…maybe Tár. I just love the fact Top Gun: Maverick is on this list because when I saw that I didn’t think oh hell, that Star Wars ripoff is a Best Pic nom for sure. But I think if anything is a longshot to knock off either of the previously mentioned, it’s the greatest female composer who never actually lived, Lydia Tár.
Joe Jarosz: Everything Everywhere All at Once should win but I could see The Banshees of Inisherin upsetting.
Jonah Desneux: Everything Everywhere All at Once is an unconventional film that will bring us a conventionally boring year. They’ll sweep the night like they have all awards season, including Best Picture. At least the team is fun to root for! Banshees could be a dark horse but at this time it’s more of a dark little donkey.
WHAT’S YOUR FAVORITE CATEGORY OF NOMINEES?
Jonah Desneux: The Original Screenplay and Best Director nominees are the exact same this year (with a little Tony Kushner thrown in to spice things up). It’s a two-round showdown represented by a slew of existential films that were clearly written and directed during Covid.
Warren Cantrell: In a first for me, I think I’m most curious about the Adapted Screenplay category this year. Glass Onion is my favorite amongst that group, though Women Talking and Living are also great choices. If Top Gun wins this, I might just have a stroke, however.
Joe Jarosz: The animated features. Pinocchio was beautiful, which shouldn’t be a surprise since Guillermo del Toro made it. But the other films are filled with a sweetness and depth not often seen in animated movies. There’s no wrong choice for a winner in this category.
Eric Melin: Both of the lead acting categories are badass, from top to bottom. (Here is where I implore you to search out the extraordinary Aftersun and To Leslie, and to try and remove the thought that the formally inventive first-person nightmare Blonde was ever meant to be “a biopic” so you can enjoy all of its craft). I can see why people thought Viola Davis not making Best Actress was a snub, but the fact of the matter is that all five of those actress’ performances are extremely nuanced and formidable. The Woman King may have been more physically strenuous (and it was a table-flipping triumph for representation), but it’s also pretty by the books, and just doesn’t stack up with the rest of them.
Timothy English: Both actress categories are awesome. Michelle Yeoh: I’m glad everyone is just now realizing how awesome this woman is. Cate Blanchett: also always awesome. Jamie Lee Curtis: legend. Stephanie Hsu is here to stay. Just saw her in Poker Face. She’s great in that, too. Hong Chau, loved her in The Menu and c’mon, she’s Pickles on BoJack. Respect. Really, in a year when there so many great candidates, unfortunately the biggest snubs are on the ladies side.
WHAT WILL BE THE BIG NARRATIVE GOING INTO THIS YEAR’S OSCARS?
Jonah Desneux: Tom Cruise will start the show by doing an insane stunt to promote the new Mission Impossible only to be outdone by James Cameron who will bring out a live Na’vi to introduce Best Supporting Actress.
Eric Melin: The producers are really excited to have blockbusters in the convo this year, so they’ll over-rotate on making a big deal of Cruise, James Cameron, and Wakanda Forever to keep viewers watching, while those movies will win enough craft awards for them to space them out and keep people interested. Diane Warren’s 14th song nomination—for an Eva Longoria movie, no less—will put everyone to sleep. The RRR Best Song performance will bring the fucking house down. There will be lots of multiverse jokes aimed at EEAO and Marvel. Hopefully Jimmy Kimmel doesn’t do a bit where he gets slapped by someone.
Timothy English: How much is Everything Everywhere All at Once going to dominate? It’s been a while since a movie just cleaned house at the Oscars. And I don’t remember the last time a movie came out in March and we all said, oh that’s winning Best Picture next year for sure. I said it, at least. It’s written down somewhere at least. What’s the over/under on how long until we get a slap joke? Oh, I can’t wait.
Warren Cantrell: Besides Will Smith? There’s been a lot of talk about Top Gun: Maverick “saving Hollywood,” but just how much those good vibes and Cruise’s campaigning pay off will be interesting to see. Like the kid brother that’s invited along to the big party but is expected to stay in the background and out of trouble, this one has just been sort of lingering in the background this awards season without kicking up too much of a fuss. It will be interesting to see if Academy voters are more sentimental than their predecessors.
Joe Jarosz: The lack of Will Smith jokes. We’ll learn after the broadcast that the Academy asked Kimmel to only reference it once…hopefully?
IF YOU WERE AN OSCAR LOBBYIST, WHO WOULD YOU BE CAMPAIGNING HARD FOR, AND WHY?
Joe Jarosz: Look, we know Top Gun is not going to win the best picture, but give it all the other categories to make it look like it made a big splash. It saved the movie theaters, didn’t it?
Timothy English: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On. Let’s GOOOOOOO!! I loved Pinocchio, too. Guillermo del Toro is a brilliant filmmaker and every one of his movies are a visual masterclass in iconic imagery. But the simplicity, originality, imagination and heart behind that damn shell with shoes looking for his family. It’s the kind of movie I hope aliens find in the future and think, “oh hey, humans weren’t too bad after all.”
Jonah Desneux: I wouldn’t have the heart to campaign against Ke Huy Quan but……Barry Keoghan and Brendan Gleeson are really good in Banshees.
Eric Melin: The Quiet Girl is a small, beautiful, devastatingly emotional movie that creeps up on you and has the unique ability to surprise the behemoth of the been-there, seen-it All Quiet “remake” or shall we say “reimagining that resembles its source material in title only.” Especially since Park Chan-wook’s jagged, challenging Decision to Leave wasn’t even nominated for Best International Feature Film—I’d be lobbying for The Quiet Girl. Like the equally remarkable Aftersun, it creeps up on you in the most surprising of ways.
Warren Cantrell: I wouldn’t be campaigning FOR anyone, per se, but against Austin Butler. I’d be pulling some backroom tabloid shit to plant stories about how he’s a shitty neighbor or a terrible tipper to get him out of the Best Actor discussion. He was fine in Elvis, but he doesn’t belong in the same discussion as the other four nominees, and he represents a terrible trend in Hollywood that’s essentially pre-stamping Oscar nominations for anyone taking on a music biopic. Literally anyone else, please.
LET’S SAY YOU ONLY GET ONE: WHAT’S YOUR HOT-TAKE PREDICTION?
Timothy English: Anything but The Whale, all night long for me, please. Look, I love Brendan Fraser and I’m down for his renaissance, but yawn. Hong Chau should have been nominated for The Menu. It was the one movie I saw the trailer for and thought, oh boy: here we go. Sorry, I’m that guy. And if Austin Butler wins and gets up there with his now ridiculous Elvis drawl and they don’t drop him through a floor of the stage I’m going to be really disappointed.
Warren Cantrell: I could see Steven Spielberg sneaking in a win if EEAO and Banshees splits the field in the Director category (definitely possible). I’m not sure if I’m ready to predict a win for him, but if there’s any big upset on Sunday, I think it’s here.
Eric Melin: Agreed.
Joe Jarosz: Last year, I wrote ” If Will Smith wins, he’s going to have the speech that people talk about for years.” Now is it the speech people are talking about, not really, but come on. I’ve got big shoes to fill from last year’s hot take. I know there are like 20 more Avatar movies coming out, but this is the last year we’ll see it as a Best Picture nominee. Yes, it was a beautiful movie, but I felt like I was watching the first one just with water instead of trees.
Jonah Desneux: Whether it be for a bit or for real, Jimmy Kimmel will get slapped this year.
Best Picture
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Triangle of Sadness
Tár
Women Talking
Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Bill Nighy, Living
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Director
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tár
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Triangle of Sadness
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
Best Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Best International Film
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
Close (Belgium)
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tár
Best Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Best Music (Original Score)
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Best Music (Original Song)
“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Best Costume Design
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
Best Live Action Short Film
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
Best Animated Short Film
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
Best Documentary Short Subject
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
“Obvious Child” is the debut novel of Warren Cantrell, a film and music critic based out of Seattle, Washington. Mr. Cantrell has covered the Sundance and Seattle International Film Festivals, and provides regular dispatches for Scene-Stealers and The Playlist. Warren holds a B.A. and M.A. in History, and his hobbies include bourbon drinking, novel writing, and full-contact kickboxing.
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