“The ceremonies are a two-hour meat parade, a public display with contrived suspense for economic reasons.” -George C. Scott
Lol…two hours: if only.
The Academy Awards are Sunday, and this year’s meat parade is an interesting one to say the least. Precursor awards like the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and SAG Awards have seen little variation between winners, giving this year’s crop of nominees a stink of inevitability rarely seen in recent campaigns: even with last year’s Everything, Everywhere, All at Once veritable sweep. One never can tell, though, as old friendships, business arrangements, and back-room politicking can turn any sure thing into a legitimate WTF jaw dropper (see 2012 and Streep’s Iron Lady win).
Like last year, and the year before, Scene-Stealers has collected the hot takes of its contributors to assess what 2024’s ceremony promises and portends. Most agree that it is going to be a big night for Oppenheimer, a bad one for Bradley Cooper, and that Paul Giamatti deserves more than just a stacked In-N-Out tray by the end of the evening. Beyond that, though…
WHAT WILL BE THE BIG NARRATIVE GOING INTO THIS YEAR’S OSCARS?
Trey Hock: The Oscars were created by Louis B. Mayer and AMPAS as way to delay union labor power in the studio system. Christopher Nolan and Oppenheimer will sweep not because they deserve accolades: they don’t. Both are garbage – but because they are next in line. It’s similar to Zac Efron’s line in Iron Claw when asked if wrestling is fake. Nolan getting his award is like a predetermined promotion. Oppenheimer is the sad scary Forrest Gump. Run, Robert, run.
Warren Cantrell: This year’s presumed winners seem to be enjoying a healthy dose of, “you’ve set up enough chairs: it’s your turn to dance.” And while Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Lily Gladstone will break that up a bit, potential wins for Robert Downey Jr, Christopher Nolan, and Cillian Murphy feel like an industry-wide “thank you” for services previously rendered. This attitude seems to have to carried Bradley Cooper toward a slew of nominations he and his atrocious movie did not earn, but mercifully it seems the plaudits will stop there. At least in Wes Anderson’s case it will be well deserved, as The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar is fantastic! And besides, he should have gotten a screenplay win for The Royal Tenenbaums years ago.
Sophie Williams: I think the ongoing narrative about the Barbie snubs clearly dominates the public discourse, HOWEVER, in my admittedly queer, more progressive circles, it quickly seems like folks are tiring of the centrist, cozy white feminism on display and the backlash to the Oscars backlash appears to be taking real shape and a real toll. No matter what, pro- or anti-, Barbie seems to dominate the conversation. I do, however, feel an Oppenheimer backlash is coming, one whose severity will be exacerbated by how big a sweep it ends up pulling. I also cannot help but feel like steadily, as more people see Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, and Past Lives, those films will loom larger in people’s minds as films screwed over by the Barbenheimer extravaganza.
Eric Melin: The big narrative already going into the Oscars is the snub of Margot Robbie, for Best Actress, and Greta Gerwig, for Best Director, along with the Oppenheimer train, of which it seems there will be no derailment.
Jonah Desneux: Going into the night it will be all about how much damage Oppenheimer will do. I also think an important yet underrated narrative going into this year’s ceremony is if the fanfare of Barbenheimer will turn into much needed eyes on the Oscars? Despite Barbenheimer being a box-office draw this summer, I don’t expect that success to carry over into viewership for the awards. I think by the end of the night we’ll all be questioning what the future of the show will be.
Logan Van Winkle: The narrative will not be if Oppenheimer will win. It will be how many Oppenheimer will win.
WHAT IS THE BIGGEST SURPRISE OR SNUB IN YOUR OPINION?
Eric Melin: I think the Barbie snubs are huge, but I’m also really disappointed that May December didn’t get anything for any of its three actors or Todd Haynes for his precise, arch, and observant direction. It’s a very tricky and thorny movie, and I do believe it may be one of the funniest and most brutal films of the year, too. I realize it’s not for everybody, but for Christ’s sake, The Zone of Interest is more alienating than anything else I’ve seen all year, and look at all those nominations!
Sophie Williams: These are two much more wildly different questions than they have been in years past. Surprises are obviously the various Barbie snubs but those have been talked to death, and honestly, I’m not the most committed to fighting them. Biggest snub is where we get interesting. Celine Song missing out on Best Director and Greta Lee for Best Actress really are the snubs that hurt me most, and as more people see Past Lives the more I think the narrative will shift towards the conversation of “oh we really should have cared more about this, actually.” Two supporting actor nods also feel conspicuously missing. Charles Melton’s layered performance in the deeply underappreciated May December is notable, as is Dominic Sessa’s fantastic breakout in The Holdovers. Neither would be favorites to win but their missing out feels wrong. I think it’s notable, though, the backlash at the Academy seems lesser than in some years, and broadly I think the lineup is less objectionable than in many recent years past.
Warren Cantrell: The fact that Oppenheimer is steamrolling its way towards what seems to be a near “Big-5” sweep has me shaking my head: truly. I liked it just fine, and the sound mixing/design wasn’t dogshit, so that’s a plus for any Nolan film, but the movie and the performances were well outside my personal favorites from 2023. Even so, I appreciate what Nolan did and would be fine with Oppenheimer getting a share of the pie, just not the whole damn thing (or near it). Godzilla Minus One deserved a whopping radioactive piece and only got a sliver, too: for shame. And don’t get me started on the absurdity of Dominic Sessa not getting a Supporting Actor nomination (or Iron Claw getting shut out entirely).
Jonah Desneux: I still can’t believe Killers of the Flower Moon didn’t receive a nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay. The moment that project was announced, I would have bet a finger it would have a screenplay nom on lock. As far as snubs go, I’m not on team Saltburn, but I thought Rosamund Pike gave one of the most enthralling performances of the year.
Logan Van Winkle: The biggest snub, to me, is the lack of nominations for Priscilla. Although I was an Elvis apologist last year (after you get through the first half, the second half is a ride!), the fact that that movie cleaned up in nominations and Sofia Coppola‘s portrait of the other half of the story was shut out entirely is unforgivable. The film is both haunting in its depictions of abuse, neglect, and isolation, but liberating in the way that it allows Priscilla’s voice to finally be heard. Although it could have been nominated in several categories, at the very least, Cailee Spaeny should have been contending for Best Actress.
WHAT ARE YOUR BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS? WHO IS THE FAVORITE, AND WHAT’S A LONGSHOT DARKHORSE YOU LIKE?
Jonah Desneux: Oppenheimer is winning Best Picture without a doubt this year. We’re only kidding ourselves to think The Zone of Interest has a viable shot. We’ve known the outcome for this year’s biggest award since July. I’m a Poor Things man myself, but even with the outcome being so predictable, it’s still hard to root against Oppenheimer for how excellent it is.
Logan Van Winkle: Nothing is beating Oppenheimer. It’s just not happening. You don’t have a movie as universally praised as that, that makes that much money against the odds, and is one half of a cultural phenomenon, and not award it. This is a particularly stacked line-up of contenders and I could see a world in which Killers of the Flower Moon, The Holdovers, or The Zone of Interest win the big prize if it was a different year. Unfortunately for them, it’s not. If I had to place a bet on a longshot, I would place it on Anatomy of a Fall. Despite not being submitted by France as their representative in International Film, Anatomy completely defied expectations and received five nominations, including surprise nominations in Best Director and Editing. If that is not a hint that the Academy loves the movie, I don’t know what is!
Warren Cantrell: I don’t see anything dislodging Oppenheimer at this point, not after running the table at the SAG and BAFTA ceremonies, but if anything has a chance at it, it’s Zone of Interest. The momentum and word of mouth has only grown since it expanded, and unlike The Holdovers, it’s gaining steam with audiences while everything else seems to be stagnant.
Eric Melin: I think Oppenheimer has it, but there is a tiny chance that the Barbie backlash also gives it a revenge Best Picture win, kind of like Ben Affleck and Argo. No matter what wins Best Picture, Nolan is definitely taking home Best Director, finally. Robert Downey Jr. has been winning all of the Supporting Actor accolades, but my longshot is Ryan Gosling for Barbie, which I think is an impeccable, comedic performance: and the Academy so rarely awards those. Ironically, Downey’s other Oscar nom is for exactly that, in Tropic Thunder. If Gosling doesn’t win, I just want to see him sing “I’m Just Ken” with all the other Kens and bring the house down.
Sophie Williams: Best Picture is Oppenheimer’s to lose. Flat out. Does it deserve it? Eh, maybe in weaker years? I’m actually not going to take the bait and say if anything pulls an upset it’ll be Barbie due to the backlash, but rather Zone of Interest. A left field pull, yes, but one that is wildly acclaimed and respected, and has a level of buzz I haven’t seen since the last arthouse left field pull to upset the behemoth picking up steam (Moonlight). If ANY genuine dark horse were to win in any category, it’s the already steadily growing upset of American Fiction winning Screenplay in the VERY stacked Adapted Screenplay race. Cord Jefferson’s funny, empathetic and wickedly smart film is slowly growing in esteem, and as voters watch their screeners a second time, I think it could easily pull an upset over the more marquee projects.
WHAT’S YOUR FAVORITE CATEGORY OF NOMINEES?
Warren Cantrell: Is it weird that I’m going Visual Effects, here? Even Napoleon, which was objectively awful and should never be seen by anyone ever again, had decent work done in post, and those action sequences are the only highlight in an otherwise interminable slog (the same with The Creator). And while Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 and Mission: Impossible would be fun wins, everyone I know is rooting for the little lizard that could! If Godzilla Minus One had come out a little earlier, I’m convinced it would have enjoyed a technical category sweep similar to Mad Max: Fury Road, but alas: too many saw it too late.
Sophie Williams: This is one of the best lineups in Animated Feature we’ve had in years. Horror filled me reading the nominations by other bodies as I prepared for Super Mario Bros., the Chicken Run sequel, or God forbid fucking Wish to take a spot, but alas, instead we got Hayao Miyazaki’s goodbye, the fabulist Spider-Man sequel, truly independent art with Robot Dreams, Pixar’s underrated immigration narrative, and my big gay anarchist fave. Do I wish Mutant Mayhem made it in? Yes, very much so, but I also know for my heart I’d give up Elemental to make it in and I’m not ready to accept that. If you made me pick between Boy and the Heron and Nimona for my favorite, I’d cry and ultimately go Miyazaki but not after screaming at you for the false binary you forced on me.
Jonah Desneux: The nominations for Production Design are all unique powerhouses across the board. I haven’t seen Napoleon, but I watched the trailer enough in theaters to know that even the clear #5 on this year’s list is still incredibly deserving of the honor.
Logan Van Winkle: My favorite category this year is Supporting Actor. Happy to see Robert Downey Jr. make it out of the stranglehold that the MCU had on his acting career and getting rewarded for it; Ryan Gosling is a dynamite comedic actor; Mark Ruffalo gave one of my favorite performances of his (even if I was not enamored with Poor Things); and Robert DeNiro proves that he can still turn in stellar work, even after being typecast as a grandpa: both Dirty and otherwise. Even the “weakest” of the category, Sterling K. Brown, is electric in his film and I was very pleasantly surprised by his nomination.
Eric Melin: I guess the Cinematography category is one of my favorites, because it contains one of the biggest surprise nominees: El Conde and Edward Lachman?! That was one of my favorite movies of the year, and I have seen it completely ignored during award season, so it was a real surprise to see it show up, and that evocative, black-and-white photography mixed with all the absurd humor and gore really sticks with me. That said, Maestro was also nominated for Cinematography, which is the only nomination it should get, because it was just a collection of amazingly shot scenes that all seem to be from different films. But maybe it just feels that way because there was very little connective tissue narratively. Alongside Saltburn, Maestro was one of the more embarrassing movies I saw this year, and I think the only reason it has so many nominations is because Bradley Cooper has been pushing the hell out of it.
IF YOU WERE AN OSCAR LOBBYIST, WHO WOULD YOU BE CAMPAIGNING HARD FOR, AND WHY?
Logan Van Winkle: I would be campaigning for Anatomy of a Fall to take Best Original Screenplay. As it stands, it appears that it has a pretty good shot, but it also has The Holdovers and Past Lives on its tail.
Eric Melin: Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach for the Barbie screenplay. It’s absolutely ludicrous that it is in the Adapted category because it was based on a fucking doll, when, in reality, it’s based on something that’s been part of the fabric of our culture for the last 50 years and it is a razor sharp, precise, absurd, hilarious satire for the ages. It really should be celebrated for its screenplay. Also, it’s the only movie I’ve seen three times this year and it makes me smile a mile wide every time.
Sophie Williams: Nimona owns my heart even if it shouldn’t necessarily win, but if I didn’t want to have mixed allegiances, I would throw my heft behind Justine Triet for Best Director. I adore a few nominees in this category but Triet’s steady hand, depth of feeling, and sheer balls to go against the French film scene to get this thing made are staggering, and more people should appreciate her work generally.
Jonah Desneux: I’d go all in on Paul Giamatti for Best Actor. Terrific performance aside, if he wins, we’re guaranteed a Giamatti renaissance (and the world would be a better place because of it). Seriously, I’m teaching an undergraduate film course right now and my students DIDN’T KNOW WHO HE WAS! They referred to him as “The Guy from In-N-Out.” He needs to win this award and further cement himself as a Hollywood great.
Warren Cantrell: The Holdovers is getting Shawshank’d by Oppenheimer, and that’s a shame. At least Da’Vine Joy Randolph will (hopefully) make sure it doesn’t go home empty-handed, but if there was any justice in the world Giamatti would be a lock for Best Actor, and Sessa would have been nominated and in serious contention. If I had any weight to pull amongst voters, I’d be pushing to get The Holdovers wins in all categories (Original Screenplay in particular). Also, if Zone of Interest doesn’t win Best Sound Design, this award is meaningless.
LET’S SAY YOU ONLY GET ONE: WHAT’S YOUR HOT-TAKE PREDICTION?
Eric Melin: My hot take prediction is that Paul Giamatti will beat Cillian Murphy for Best Actor. Murphy was riveting and held that entire movie together for three hours, but nobody does lovable curmudgeon like Paul Giamatti. He has such an attitude and at the same time so much warmth in The Holdovers, and I think in the end people will soften up and vote for him. Also, I think everybody thought he should’ve been nominated for Sideways, when, in fact, he never was, so this will be a make-up win.
Warren Cantrell: Giamatti for Best Actor, not because I think it is very likely at this point, but I at least want to put that energy out into the universe. That said, Murphy did a great job, and while not my pick, it certainly wouldn’t make me angry. I also appreciate that a lot of people connected with Oppenheimer, so if that gets people excited about movies and the Oscars, fuck it: let’s party.
Sophie Williams: My hot take will likely be similar to many others, even with an Oppenheimer sweep coming: I think Cillian Murphy’s ascendancy is not set in stone. I think Giamatti’s charm offensive is absolutely killer (as is his performance in The Holdovers, my begrudging favorite film in the Best Picture race), but I also won’t rule out a sharp turn towards Jeffrey Wright for his understated work in American Fiction, as well as an honoring of his whole career. Honestly, though, I think the only person destined to definitely not win in that race is my nemesis: Bradley Cooper in a fake nose. And as easy as it is to make fun of Maestro, I still hate A Star is Born more.
Jonah Desneux: Wouldn’t it be funny if Bradley Cooper’s politicking actually worked when it mattered most? Don’t let Twitter’s snark fool you, I could see it happening.
Logan Van Winkle: This is not the hottest of hot takes but it seems that Best Actress has come down to Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. While both women gave great performances, neither of them would be taking it if it were up to me. Sandra Hüller would be snatching it away for her complex portrayal of a woman on trial. I had never seen her in a movie before, but I was utterly taken by her from frame one. She is a star and should be sweeping this awards season.
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Best Actress
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, “Poor Things
Best Supporting Actor
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
America Ferrera, Barbie
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Best Director
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Best Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Best Documentary Feature
20 Days in Mariupol
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Best International Film
Io Capitano, Italy
Perfect Days, Japan
Society of the Snow, Spain
The Teachers’ Lounge, Germany
The Zone of Interest, United Kingdom
Best Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Best Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Best Music (Original Score)
American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Best Music (Original Song)
“It Never Went Away” from American Symphony
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Best Costume Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Best Sound
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Best Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Best Live Action Short Film
The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Best Animated Short Film
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Best Documentary Short Subject
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó
“Obvious Child” is the debut novel of Warren Cantrell, a film and music critic based out of Seattle, Washington. Mr. Cantrell has covered the Sundance and Seattle International Film Festivals, and provides regular dispatches for Scene-Stealers and The Playlist. Warren holds a B.A. and M.A. in History, and his hobbies include bourbon drinking, novel writing, and full-contact kickboxing.
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