This week saw the release of the nominees for the 2021 film season, and to no one’s surprise, the people who care about this stuff had some thoughts. Those nominated for the 94th annual Academy Awards represent an interesting mix of critical darlings, big-budget crowd pleasers, and everything in between, with The Power of the Dog leading the proverbial pack with 12 nominations (pun absolutely intended).
There are several interesting contenders in the wings threatening to keep these races competitive, however, along with more than a few head-scratchers even the most seasoned minds at Scene-Stealers can’t quite explain. A full list of the nominations is at the bottom, but to get a sense of what the Scene-Stealers crew is thinking about this crop of nominees, look no further.
WHAT IS THE BIGGEST SURPRISE OR SNUB?
Timothy English: Hard to say a film with 10 nominations has a snub but Denis Villeneuve stands out in the Director category. And while I’m not sure I’d call it a snub, I’m actually surprised Spider-Man No Way Home didn’t sneak into the Best Picture category, especially after the failed attempt to create a Most Popular Movie award. Being the Ricardos probably shouldn’t have gotten 3 acting noms, but it’s hard to resist familiar names.
Warren Cantrell: Everyone is talking about Villeneuve getting snubbed for Best Director (and rightly so), but the fact that The Green Knight didn’t get a single nomination blows my goddamned mind. It almost feels aggressive at this point, like someone at the Academy just threw all those nominating ballots away because David Lowery pants’d them in middle school.
Jonah Desneux: The Green Knight getting shut out of all the technical awards is this year’s biggest blunder. With those visual elements, David Lowery must have pissed someone off to not receive any recognition. No offense to Free Guy, but how can anyone say that the Dumb Giant CGI Ryan Reynolds is better than the Roaming Giants in The Green Knight?
Logan Van Winkle: As with any year, these nominations have a lot to celebrate and a lot to complain about. For me, the biggest surprise of the day was Kristen Stewart getting in for Spencer. When it was released, Stewart seemed like the frontrunner for the Best Actress Oscar and yet, as we got closer, it seemed more and more likely that she would not even be nominated. It was a very pleasant surprise to hear her name called. Biggest snub of the day? Mike Faist missing out on a Best Supporting Actor nomination for West Side Story. I love J.K. Simmons but he has no business making this line-up for a mediocre performance in a mediocre movie (and I’m a Sorkin fan!) Beyond that, I have to shout out how excited I am to see Andrew Garfield nominated for Best Actor for Tick, Tick… BOOM! If I had a ballot, he would have my vote.
Christian Alec Ramos: Biggest surprise was J.K. Simmons and Judi Dench getting in. I’m shook. Lady Gaga and Jared Leto were shit in a shit movie: there’s no way that was a snub.
Joe Jarosz: I bought into the hype that Spider-Man: No Way Home would get a best picture nod. But also, nothing for The Harder They Fall or In the Heights? All three were great ensemble pieces and I was surprised all three were left out.
Eric Melin: Neither Lady Gaga nor Jared Leto getting nominated for House of Gucci is hilarious. Those “snubs” and Ben Affleck’s “snub” for playing the good uncle in Clooney’s run-of-the-mill nostalgic piece The Tender Bar—I don’t think those should even be called snubs. It’s just that dumb narratives were being built up around them because of their star power: “Oh Ben is being honest about his failures and his love life in interviews…let’s start the comeback narrative.” Ugh. A real snub? Vincent Lindon should have been nominated for the single most pained performance of the year in Titane, a transportive, emotional, surreal movie from Julia Ducournau that was also snubbed for Best Foreign Language film.
WHAT ARE YOUR BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS? WHO IS THE FAVORITE, AND WHAT’S A LONGSHOT DARKHORSE YOU LIKE?
Christian Alec Ramos: The Power of the Dog all the way but my heart is West Side Story. Netflix better get me a copy on Criterion STAT.
Eric Melin: For the most part, it’s such a weak field. The best two movies nominated are The Power of the Dog and Licorice Pizza, and since PTA’s newest is such a minor lark compared with the rest of his filmography, I’m going with Jane Campion FTW. It’s smart, subtle, assured, and serious.
Warren Cantrell: If only because they got the most nominations (including in the “big-5”), The Power of the Dog has to be the prohibitive favorite. It’s got pedigree, relevant social themes, period-piece shine, and the colossal power of Netflix’s marketing machine behind it. Belfast is the only real spoiler option for it, and even that seems like a longshot at this point (its momentum is ebbing).
Logan Van Winkle: This has been a two-horse race between The Power of the Dog and Belfast for a few months now. With The Power of the Dog leading nominations, I am inclined to think it is all but locked up in its favor now. Though if I am getting crazy and picking a dark horse to win, I would have to go with Don’t Look Up! It might seem insane, considering it only garnered four nominations and is a wildly divisive film, but it landed in Best Editing (Belfast couldn’t do that!) and Best Original Screenplay. Hollywood loves to pat themselves on the back and no choice would be a harder pat than this overlong film about an important issue. You can bet that if we hear “Don’t Look Up” following the words, “And the Oscar goes to…” I will promptly close my Twitter app before everyone sets it ablaze.
Timothy English: I feel like this is The Power of the Dog year. And Benedict Cumberbatch. They’ve been front runners pretty much since Day 1. Seems like the easy choice for the Academy. Checks off a lot of boxes on the “What is a Best Picture” checklist. Licorice Pizza may have a shot if it gets enough legit eyeballs on it.
Jonah Desneux: The Power of The Dog is this year’s front runner for a reason. It’s rare that Best Picture actually goes to the best film of the year, but Campion is going to pull it off. This one’s for you, Bronco Henry! As far as a dark house, maybe Scorsese’s endorsement for Nightmare Alley gives the noir some hope. It’s hard to imagine Guillermo del Toro taking home the top prize right after The Shape of Water, but it would make for a fun end on Oscar night.
Joe Jarosz: This year it is hard to predict a favorite. Nothing is standing out right now, but Nightmare Alley feels like a dark horse, even with Guillermo del Toro behind the camera.
Kate Valliere: I’ve seen nothing. House of Gucci was a bummer. Spencer was a bummer.
WHAT’S YOUR FAVORITE CATEGORY OF NOMINEES?
Warren Cantrell: The Supporting Actress category is a tough one to handicap, which always makes for an interesting race to follow in the Cantrell household. Dunst seems to be a prohibitive favorite at this point, but almost nothing would surprise me come Oscar night. Dench is an easy pick for lazy Academy voters, yet DeBose has been cleaning up in critics circles and would be a peace offering to Spielberg and West Side Story (which will likely go home empty-handed otherwise).
Joe Jarosz: Animated. All are great films, although I would have switched out Flee with Ron’s Gone Wrong. Fingers crossed The Mitchells vs. the Machines takes home the win.
Christian Alec Ramos: Animated picture is lit.
Logan Van Winkle: Most years, my favorite category of nominees ends up being one of the Screenplay categories. This year, I’d have to say the best category of nominees is Best Animated Feature. There is not a bad movie in the bunch! The movie that most people would say is the category’s weakest, Raya and the Last Dragon, is actually my favorite of the nominees. I understand people get tired of Disney’s dominance in the category and I understand the frustration. Admittedly, it would have been nice to see something like The Summit of the Gods replace Luca. Even so, the five films in contention are all worthy of recognition.
Eric Melin: Probably Production Design. There were some truly beautifully designed movies this year and that’s a strong list.
Jonah Desneux: Production Design has heavy hitters across the board. Dune, Nightmare Alley, The Power of the Dog, The Tragedy of Macbeth, and West Side Story have vastly different looks that are outstanding in their own way. Each could easily win any other year, making this year difficult to predict.
Timothy English: Loving the Cinematography category this year. A lot of great looking films this year and I think the nominees this year truly exemplify the crop as a whole. This one could be anyone’s to win. Not sure there is a clean-cut favorite.
WHAT WILL BE THE BIG NARRATIVE GOING INTO THIS YEAR’S OSCARS?
Jonah Desneux: It was only four years ago that the discourse on if Netflix should be eligible for awards ran rampant online. Since then, the face of streaming has had 7 best picture nominations. This year they’ll take home their first Best Picture win with The Power of the Dog cementing their credibility.
Christian Alec Ramos: All we’ll hear about is the Campion vs. Spielberg and whose winning Best Actress.
Eric Melin: 28 Years Later, the Oscar zombie sequel: Campion (The Piano) vs. Spielberg (Schindler’s List), the Best Director rematch. She’s a shoo-in to beat him this time. Also, Flee being nominated for doc, animated, foreign language – never happened before!
Timothy English: The diversity of films will probably get a nice big fat pat on the back from everyone in attendance. It’s nice to see a film like CODA get its share of deserved nominations. I’m sure a lot of people will be super impressed that Kristen Stewart got a nomination despite the fact she isn’t a very good actor.
Warren Cantrell: Ratings, hosting, and shaking off the stink of last year’s debacle. The Oscars really do seem to be at a crossroads in terms of viewership and cultural relevancy. Ratings are going to continue declining: the landscape of the format all but guarantees that. The question is whether the Academy will continue trying to tweak things to fight this inevitable death, or return to a sense of normalcy to placate the few die-hards still watching live?
Joe Jarosz: If Will Smith wins, he’s going to have the speech that people talk about for years.
Logan Van Winkle: The big narrative going into this year is: Will the Fresh Prince become the Fresh King? Will Smith has been entertaining audiences in all sorts of ways for over thirty years. He has had a few shots at Best Actor but has never sealed the deal. This year seems like it could be his year. After a string of critical failures for most of the 2010s, I, for one, will be happy to see one of our last genuine movie stars get recognition from the industry in the form of a little gold man.
IF YOU WERE AN OSCAR LOBBYIST, WHO WOULD YOU BE CAMPAIGNING HARD FOR, AND WHY?
Joe Jarosz: Will Smith. Was he robbed for Ali? Maybe. He faces off against Denzel again 20 years later (Training Day vs Ali was 2002, funny timing).
Timothy English: Troy Kotsur for CODA. I thought there were a lot of great performances but he really stood out to me. He was funny, endearing, and his scenes really popped when he was on screen. I’d also love to see Flee cause a ruckus.
Jonah Desneux: I’d give my all to have Flee break down barriers in the animation category, like Parasite did for Best Picture in 2020. This category desperately needs a shake-up from the same Disney death fight year after year.
Eric Melin: Flee – How cool would it be for it to win Animated and Documentary? (Drive My Car will win Foreign.)
Warren Cantrell: Penelope Cruz for Parallel Mothers, if only to encourage people to seek out and watch Parallel Mothers, which is exquisite.
Logan Van Winkle: If I had any sort of sway with voters, I would be lobbying for West Side Story to win Best Picture. “The story has already won Best Picture,” “Spielberg shouldn’t have remade a classic,” “The movie was a box office failure.” SAVE IT! I do not care! West Side Story was the best film of 2021. In a career full of masterpieces, Spielberg has added yet another to the list. From beginning to end, Uncle Steven puts us on his back and shows us how good cinema can truly be when you have someone who cares behind the camera. No disrespect to any of the other films nominated, but I do not understand how one can watch Mike Faist snapping and dancing his way through New York City and not leave the theater wanting to give the film all 23 Oscars – eligibility be damned!
Christian Alec Ramos: The entire West Side Story team.
LET’S SAY YOU ONLY GET ONE: WHAT’S YOUR HOT-TAKE PREDICTION?
Eric Melin: Good lord…Kristen Stewart for Spencer! There was so much “controversy” over her getting snubbed at SAG (which awarded Gaga, Leto, and Affleck, BTW cuz they are a huge body with terrible taste) – Oscar voters will give her the win just to show how much cooler they are than SAG. Runner up: Chastain as Tammy Faye. Why? Colman, Cruz, and Kidman already got theirs!
Christian Alec Ramos: Nicole Kidman is a snooze in Being the Ricardos.
Kate Valliere: None, though I think it’s weird that the Being the Ricardos folks led the marketing campaign with Kidman instead of Simmons, who is an actual draw to watch it.
Warren Cantrell: Kenneth Branagh is going to win Best Director and it isn’t even close. Not that he was the best director of the year (or even amongst the nominees), but vote splits are going to drop this one in his lap.
Jonah Desneux: After all its acclaim and seven nominations, West Side Story will leave the night without a single statue.
Logan Van Winkle: Despite most people assuming that either Paul Thomas Anderson will win for Licorice Pizza or that Kenneth Branagh will win for Belfast, I will go on the record saying that Don’t Look Up will win Best Original Screenplay. Should it? Absolutely not. Will that stop The Academy? Absolutely not.
Joe Jarosz: Another low-ratings broadcast is going to force the Academy to add another category that brings more viewers in 2023.
Timothy English: One of the least interesting and inspiring Best Actress categories in a while. Kristen Stewart will win the award that should probably go to Penelope Cruz. Viewing numbers will continue to drop. Mainstream audiences will complain they’ve never seen anything nominated and next year they’ll add a special category for Disney/Marvel, and The Rock will host and announce all awards.
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick…Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Best Supporting Actor
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Best Director
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Best Original Screenplay
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
Best Documentary Feature
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul
Writing With Fire
Best Animated Feature
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Best International Film
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Yanna (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Best Cinematography
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Best Film Editing
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick…Boom!
Best Music (Original Score)
Don’t Look Up
Dune
Encanto
Parallel Mothers
The Power of the Dog
Best Music (Original Song)
“Be Alive,” King Richard, Beyoncé Knowles-Carter, Dixson
“Dos Oroguitos,” Encanto, Lin-Manuel Miranda
“Down to Joy,” Belfast, Van Morrison
“No Time To Die,” No Time To Die, Billie Eilish, Finneas O’Connell
“Somehow You Do,” Four Good Days, Diane Warren
Best Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
Power
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Best Costume Design
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Best Sound
Belfast
Dune
No Time To Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Best Visual Effects
Dune
Free Guy
No Time To Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Best Live Action Short Film
Ala Kacchu – Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
Best Animated Short Film
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
Best Documentary Short Subject
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs of Benazir
When We Were Bullies
“Obvious Child” is the debut novel of Warren Cantrell, a film and music critic based out of Seattle, Washington. Mr. Cantrell has covered the Sundance and Seattle International Film Festivals, and provides regular dispatches for Scene-Stealers and The Playlist. Warren holds a B.A. and M.A. in History, and his hobbies include bourbon drinking, novel writing, and full-contact kickboxing.
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